Potential Draft Risers in the NBA and G League Combine
The NBA and G League Draft Combines are a great chance for undervalued players to showcase what they can do against NBA prospects. Over the past years, there’s been a lot of stock risers at these events. Players like Quentin Grimes, Ben Sheppard, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, and Jalen Williams went from either unranked or 2nd round prospects to all taken first round due to a strong combine. In the G League combine, players like Marcus Sasser, Dillon Jones, and Hunter Tyson all saw their stock rise due to a strong performance. In this article, I write about six players in both events who I believe will be NBA Draft risers.
Judah Mintz 6’4 PG Sophomore Syracuse
While Judah didn’t get invited to the main NBA Combine, I think he has a chance to show people that was a mistake in the G League Combine. Last year in the NBA Combine Judah had a strong performance showcasing his playmaking, and defense. He also didn’t take many bad shots playing overall in tempo, however he was overshadowed due to not doing to really standout.
Judah decided to return where he upped his averages from 16 ppg to 19 and improved to the All-ACC 2nd team, however his stock saw a dip. While it is true that a PG that isn’t a very good three point shooter can have concerns, a lot of Judah’s strengths have gotten overshadowed.
When comparing him to Isaiah Collier a projected lottery pick there’s not many difference with the two. Judah and Collier are both around the same height as both are 6’3 without shoes and their shot profile is very similar. Collier had 154 attempts at the rim and shot 61%, he had 80 mid range attempts shooting 40%, and 80 three point attempts shooting 33%. Judah had 180 attempts at the rim shooting 58%, 165 attempts from the mid range and shot 37%, and 83 three point attempts shooting 27%. Collier also shot 67% from the line, Judah shot 77%. While Judah did play 5 more games than Collier overall they score is very similar ways, as both are average athlete pgs who play their game mostly at the rim trying to draw fouls not to mention when it comes to playmaking both are very similar as well.
I think what makes Judah stands apart from Collier is having a much higher rate when it comes to drawing free throws and also being more of a mid-range threat which is very important. A lot of the top stars in the NBA elevate their game from the mid-range when you watch guys like Shai, or Devin Booker this is a very important part of their game.
Judah’s shot profile for his age is very rare as well. Since 2008 only 1 underclassmen who has been drafted had an AST% of 25, 200 free throw attempts shooting 70% or higher, 175 attempts at the rim shooting 57% or higher, and 150 attempts from the mid-range shooting 36% or higher and that is De'Aaron Fox. Now is Judah going to be Fox? Probably not however it still shows how rare a guard his age can get to the rim at that level while also getting to the line at an elite level and from the mid-range at a high level while also being a good passer. Judah doesn’t have Fox’s elite athleticism but he makes up for it by having a crafty game and using that to his advantage to draw fouls.
Overall I think Judah is someone who has been overshadowed due to coming back another year and not really improving his 3pt shot concerns while a lot of good attributes have been overlooked due to this and he has a chance to showcase that in the G League Elite camp in a 2 day period where a lot of scouts are looking to find overlooked players and I think he’s someone with a good enough performance who can get first round looks.
Baylor Scheierman 6’7 Wing Senior Creighton
One of the most popular and hard-to-find archetypes in the NBA are movement-shooting wings. Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Joe Harris, and Bojan Bogdanovic all made a ton of money due to this, and I think Baylor can be the next in line. For the season, Baylor shot 41% on off-screen three-pointers on 64 attempts, which was the second-most for any HM player next to Cam Spencer.
Baylor is also a very good passer for his archetype, which is unheard of at 6’7. Since 2008, 27 players have shot 38% or higher from three on at least 280 attempts and had an AST% of 15 or higher. Baylor is the only wing in the whole group, which shows how rare it is to find someone his size with that level of playmaking and shooting. When you also factor in Baylor's finishing ability, with 62% at the rim on 100 attempts, that list drops to just 3 players.
Baylor also can run the PNR. At South Dakota State, he ran PG for them, but after making the jump to High Major last season at Creighton, he didn’t get much of a chance to do it. However, this season he used the PNR a lot, showcasing his passing ability that he didn’t get much of a chance to do before, and he also used it to effectively create space from three. Baylor shot 58% on all PNR shots on 63 attempts, which is a very high number for anyone, let alone someone who is 6’7.
While there are a lot of questions in terms of Baylor’s athleticism gap compared to some other players, especially when he gets to the league, I think if players like Bojan and Duncan can stick in the league for this long, Baylor should be able to too if used right.
In the Combine, shooters and playmakers get a lot of buzz when it comes to your stock rising, and Baylor is one of the best in both of these areas. I think if he showcases his movement shooting ability while also showcasing some of that passing and PNR ability, he’s someone that teams will be all over. Right now, Baylor is mostly a 2nd rounder; however, I believe he’s someone who should be ranked much higher, and I think he has the perfect opportunity to showcase that.
DaRon Holmes 6’10 Center Junior Dayton
When it comes to big men who can switch and guard the perimeter, there aren’t very many in the NBA, and when you see them, they are usually very valuable players. For example, Nic Claxton is one of the best switchable bigs in the league and has made serious money. DaRon also provides some really good rim protection, possesses good timing, and doesn’t foul very often. DaRon also uses his athleticism in this area, giving him a very versatile skillset on defense, which alone makes him an intriguing prospect, but he’s also very good offensively as well.
DaRon can play a lot of different roles on offense. He’s a very good roll man and rim runner who finished with 75 dunks for the season, but he’s also someone who is a good post threat and can stretch the floor, as well as someone who shot 39% from three on three attempts a game. When it comes to sudden three-point shooting improvements, it’s something that comes with a big question mark, but DaRon has improved his FT% every season, and he also has good touch around the rim, which is why I believe he can become a shooting threat from deep in the next level. That’s not even mentioning the massive improvements he’s had on the passing side of the ball, going from an AST% of 9 his freshman year to a 19 AST% this season. One of the biggest reasons for this is his increased role; however, it’s still a very impressive number, and DaRon has a good sense of where to find his teammates as a rim runner but also being able to become a legitimate post-passing threat if he did have a bigger role in the NBA makes him very valuable.
Since 2008, the only players who have had a BLK% of 7 or higher, at least 50 dunks made, an AST% of 10 or higher, and shot at least 35% from three on 50 attempts or more are Chet Holmgren and DaRon Holmes. This shows how unique his skillset is because you don’t often see someone his size who is good at pretty much everything. There are still some questions when it comes to DaRon. For example, upperclassmen bigs don’t often get picked high, let alone mid major ones, and he only has a +2 wingspan. However, when it comes to upperclassmen bigs, we’ve never really seen one as good as DaRon in a while, and while his wingspan does hurt, Daniel Gafford has mostly the same measurements and has been a very good player in the league.
Overall In a class where there aren't many big players at the top and two-way players in general, I think with a big combine showing, DaRon can turn a lot of heads. Last year he was in the combine, but he didn’t get much of a chance to play due to his low stock last season and him being put on a talented team. However, this season his stock is much higher, and if he gets the opportunity, I think he will show a lot. Right now, he’s a projected 2nd rounder, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved his stock to a first-rounder after the combine.
Blake Hinson 6’7 Wing Senior Pitt
When it comes to shooters who can shoot from anywhere, whether it be a logo three or a contested three with two people on you, Blake Hinson is one of those players who can do that. Hinson shot an insanely high 44% on contested catch and shoot threes on five attempts a game, and that’s not even factoring in some of his off-the-dribble contested looks that he made. At 6'7, having a shooter of this caliber is very valuable.
Earlier, I mentioned with Baylor Schierman how valuable movement shooting is at 6'7, and while Hinson isn't the level of Passer Baylor is, when it comes to movement shooters at that height, it’s a valuable skill that teams are looking for. Since 2008, only two HM players 6’7 or taller have shot 42% from three on at least 250 attempts, and those are Hinson and Svi Mykhailiuk. And while Svi isn’t a standout name, he’s still someone who has had a solid NBA career, and even in college, when it came to scoring, Svi mostly depended on the three, as he only shot 49% at the rim on 140 attempts. Hinson is a little more versatile and can score at the rim at a solid rate, shooting 61% on 130 attempts. Hinson depended on the post a lot due to his bigger frame and got a lot of points in the paint due to this. He’s also a strong transition finisher. In the next level, Hinson probably won’t get too many post-up looks; however, having a skill that sets you apart from just a shooting specialist is good to have, and Hinson has a big enough frame where, if he gets the chance, he can be an effective post-scorer.
In the combine, if Hinson can continue to showcase his very impressive shot-making ability at his height, he’s someone who could be a potential riser. Right now he’s not ranked very high and is in the G League Combine due to him being a liability on defense and athletically, also his age of 24. This is all true however Hinson’s level of shooting is very rare for his height and if you can successfully hide him on defense at the 4th spot, Hinson is someone who can provide a lot for any NBA team with his shooting. If Hinson can showcase that shooting ability along with getting some points at the rim and not look horrible on defense, I think he’s someone who can get his name heard on Draft Night.
Jamal Shead 6’1 PG Senior Houston
When it comes to guard defenders in the class, Jamal Shead is one of the very best in this area. Shead plays with 100% energy on this end, which is something you don’t see often, and it helps Shead lock up the opposing team's best players often but also goes for steals. When it comes to POA defense, you won’t find many players better in this area than Shead, and he’s also very strong when it comes to drawing charges, causing turnovers, and disrupting passing lanes.
Offensively Shead loves to use the PNR; this is one of the main areas where he gets his points and a lot of his assists. As a playmaker, he’s good at making reads, and even though he’s not a huge scoring threat, having a guy like Cryer on the team caused Shead to find players a lot more easily. In the next level, if you play Shead next to a scoring guard, he will have a great time finding players. Scoring-wise, like I mentioned before, Shead still struggles in this area. He’s not a very good shooter, as he’s only a career 30% shooter, and while he has a nice mid-range shot, he’s fully dependent on the PNR and can only play one position on the court.
However, despite this, there’s a pathway for Shead to do well in the NBA. One player he reminds me a lot of is Dennis Smith Jr., who has become a solid rotation player in the NBA, playing 20 minutes a game. Both Shead and DSJ are 6’1 elite defensive guards with a big frame, and both play with 100% effort. DSJ is also someone who struggles from three, and while Shead isn’t the athlete DSJ used to be nowadays, I think Shead and DSJ play with the same level of athleticism. If Shead can showcase his high-level defense against other NBA Draft prospects along with his playmaking, he can make a case for him to not only be drafted but potentially get a guaranteed contract. Even with his limitations, he’s someone who’s got a skillset that teams are looking for, and he’s one of the very best when it comes to that archetype.
Jaylen Wells 6’8 Wing Junior Washington State
Last season, Jaylen Wells was playing D2 basketball for Sonoma State; now this season, he’s developed into a legit NBA draft prospect. Wells's main appeal is his shooting ability at 6’8, where he shot an impressive 42% on 5 attempts per game. Wells has a lot of versatility when it comes to shooting, as he can shoot off the catch but also off the dribble. Wells also has a very good pull-up mid-range jumper, where he shot 44%. Another thing that stands out about Wells is his ability to run the PNR. While his passing isn’t anything special, he’s good at finding open teammates and uses his shooting ability to make a key extra pass when needed. He also uses the PNR to his advantage here, getting an off-dribble look or finding an open teammate.
Wells’s finishing ability is the big question with his game, as he didn’t take many looks at the rim as his role was mainly to be the shooter for Washington State. However, last season for Sonoma State, when Wells was playing as the top option and had a lot more freedom, he was one of the best finishers in the D2 level, shooting 64% on 160 attempts. He scored mainly on cuts and also drove to the rim a lot; however, at Washington State, he was very limited when it came to cuts. Another area of his game from D2 that he didn’t get much of a chance to showcase was his passing ability. As I mentioned before, while Wells was good at making a quick read this season, but as a full creator last season, he was creating a lot of passing advantages on all 3 levels of the court and finished the season averaging 3 APG playing kind of a point-forward type role. While his Washington State role is likely what his NBA role will be, I think Wells has some upside as a creator, which gives him some versatility compared to other shooting wings in the league.
In the combine, Wells will have a good chance to showcase his shooting ability at his height, especially since he’s a player who recently got draft buzz, so seeing him against other NBA prospects will be interesting to see. I think with a good combine showing, Wells is someone who can rise up draft boards and mocks and potentially rise as high as the first round, similar to what Ben Sheppard did, with his shooting ability and potentially his cutting ability and PNR skill.